Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.455828 0.526388 0.603337 0.693359 0.795662 0.908177 1.041170
2025-08-10 0.332939 0.428050 0.542174 0.688621 0.870922 1.089701 1.371416
2025-08-17 0.261819 0.364756 0.497350 0.679423 0.921508 1.230705 1.653657
2025-08-24 0.214554 0.319634 0.463190 0.671595 0.963944 1.356548 1.920151
2025-08-31 0.175644 0.277873 0.425050 0.649485 0.979457 1.442336 2.135098
2025-09-07 0.160582 0.267465 0.428375 0.684185 1.075416 1.644563 2.526323
2025-09-14 0.135995 0.238326 0.399300 0.665830 1.089355 1.727473 2.749400
2025-09-21 0.116025 0.213358 0.372941 0.647425 1.099404 1.802857 2.964323
2025-09-28 0.100261 0.192991 0.351093 0.632938 1.112734 1.882336 3.189387
2025-10-05 0.091926 0.184385 0.347656 0.648158 1.175041 2.042975 3.554063
2025-10-12 0.087203 0.181650 0.353872 0.680196 1.267863 2.259447 4.024737
2025-10-19 0.081038 0.175259 0.352607 0.698392 1.337631 2.441790 4.450558
2025-10-26 0.073632 0.165618 0.344588 0.704052 1.386813 2.594918 4.842196
2025-11-02 0.066066 0.154603 0.332682 0.701134 1.420067 2.722919 5.200216
2025-11-09 0.058812 0.143149 0.318456 0.691934 1.440177 2.828136 5.524234
2025-11-16 0.052597 0.133033 0.305661 0.683986 1.461462 2.936268 5.860168
2025-11-23 0.045907 0.120793 0.286869 0.661500 1.451549 2.984535 6.087062
2025-11-30 0.044589 0.121064 0.295122 0.696792 1.561216 3.268471 6.779638
2025-12-07 0.039380 0.111030 0.279249 0.678124 1.557467 3.330973 7.048231
2025-12-14 0.034794 0.101837 0.264143 0.659405 1.551589 3.388174 7.309336
2025-12-21 0.030991 0.094079 0.251434 0.644669 1.552713 3.459054 7.601760
2025-12-28 0.029308 0.091799 0.251689 0.660149 1.621737 3.674323 8.201863
2026-01-04 0.028646 0.092276 0.258832 0.692734 1.731863 3.982824 9.013736